NAFA member, Jeremy Cox, President of JetValues-Jeremy LLC, shares his latest article.
The title of this article is both accurate and misleading all at once. “Provenance” definitely applies to certain Warbirds; but here is the misleading part - it also applies to anything of value - art, jewelry, ships, automobiles, vintage aircraft, spacecraft, and the list goes on.
“Provenance” is used extensively by the major auction houses like Sotheby’s, and Christies; and also, by me - an aircraft appraiser who specializes in “off-book” aircraft (any aircraft not listed/covered any Price/Value Guide, and therefore requires me to do a lot of research before I can confidently calculate a credible opinion of value.) “Provenance” is defined by Merriam-Webster, as: ‘1. Origin, Source; 2. the history of ownership of a valued object, or work of art, or literature.’
Simon de Burton of Classic Driver Online Magazine has identified the fact that Cars previously owned by Steve McQueen (ownership history) are “all at least double the value of a comparable, non-McQueen examples.” A Series 1 Land Rover gifted to Sir Winston Churchill on his 80th birthday made £119,000 (just over $188,000) in 2012, which is at least four-times a regular ‘mint’ Series 1 would have made at the time.
A private jet once owned by Elvis Presley sold for $430,000 at a California auction. The 1962 Lockheed Jetstar (L-1329 Jetstar 6, s/n. 5016, N440RM) had sat on a ramp in Roswell, New Mexico for 35 years and had no engines and an unrestored cockpit. 400 to 500 percent above Fair Market Value (FMV.)
Frank Sinatra, after taking delivery of his new Learjet 23 in 1965 (s/n. 031 – N175FS), named it Christina II after his youngest daughter. Atlanta Air Salvage discovered the ownership history in 2005. 400 to 500 percent above FMV.
P-51D-20-NA, s/n. 44-72364 (N723FH) is a combat veteran with the Eighth Air Force’s 353rd Fighter Group. It was assigned to Captain Harrison “Bud” Tordoff, who shot down a German Me 262 jet fighter. The Flying Heritage & Combat Armor Museum acquired the aircraft in 1998. This Mustang is restored to be almost exactly the same as it was in 1945. Bought by the late Paul Allen in 2004 for $9M. 500 to 600 percent above FMV.
In September 1980 the wreckage of a Spitfire aircraft emerged from the sands of Calais beach. It had crash-landed during the Second World War. Initially, the identity of the aircraft remained a mystery but following its recovery by the manager of the nearby Hoverport in January 1981, the Spitfire was identified as P9374, an early Mk 1 version of Supermarine’s finest creation.
Spitfire P9374 was one of a batch of 138 Spitfires built under Air Ministry contract at Supermarine’s Woolston works and delivered to the RAF on 2 March 1940 before arriving at 92 Squadron at RAF Croydon four days later.
Records show that P9374 had a total flight time of 32 hours and 5 minutes at the time of its loss on Friday 24 May 1940.
On Thursday 1 September 2011 P9374 was test-flown after a complete restoration/rebuild by a company in Duxford, Cambridgeshire.
On Thursday 9 July 2015 at the Christie’s, King Street Auction House, London this 1940 MK.1 Spitfire, serial number P9374 sold under the hammer for $4,836,000 (double its estimate & market value.) Ronald Lauder (Estee Lauder family) purchased this aircraft and shipped it to his aircraft collection based in New York.
When a craft crosses the “Karman Line” - the linear division between the surface of the Earth and Space (Fédération Aéronautique Internationale definition: The ‘Karman Line’ is located 62 statute miles/330,000 feet or (100 km) above Mean Sea Level) its FMV ‘skyrockets’ (please excuse my pun.) Earl Mullins, who is a life-long expert collector and trader of ‘space artifacts’, as well as the Founder and President of The Space Museum , in Bonne Terre, Missouri, has determined that any artifact that has the provenance of having flown in-space, is worth at least five-times (500 percent) what it is as merely an earthbound object; additionally, the ‘holy grail’ for collectors – an artifact that has flown to, and landed on the Moon, is worth at least nine-times (900 percent) what it is as merely an earthbound object.
How do I confidently use these examples to factor-in “Provenance” into my appraisals? First, I will categorize the subject aircraft/spacecraft:
Based on ‘age’, and when historical provenance value is considered, I categorize all as follows:
1. 1. Pre 20th Century (all dates prior)
2. Pioneer (1900 thru 1913)
3. Great War (1914 thru 1919)
4. Roaring 20’s includes the ‘First Record Breakers’ (1920 thru 1929)
5. Pre-World War includes the ‘Second Record Breakers’ (1930 thru 1939)
6. Early Rotary Wing (1923 thru 1945)
7. WWII Warbird Era (1940 thru 1946)
8. Modern Rotary Wing (1946 to-date)
9. Pistons Golden Age (1947 thru 1958)
10. Early Jets (mostly Warbirds 1942 thru 1957)
11. Classic Turboprops (1948 thru 1987)
12. The Jet Age (1958 thru 1980)
13. Modern Jets (1981 to-date)
14. Modern Turboprops (1988 to-date)
15. Pistons ‘Pre LCD/EFIS’ (1959 thru 1998)
16. Modern Pistons (1999 to-date)
17. Ultralight/Amateur Built/Light Sport (any dates)
18. Electric Aircraft (any dates)
19. Replica (any dates)
20. Spacecraft (a vehicle for operation outside the Earth’s atmosphere (1944 to-date))
Next, I will hold any verified facts regarding the subject that I have discovered during my research - against the following “Provenance” Events listed out in my “Provenance” Rating Table, as follows:
- Images and/or Film Footage in-action
- Documented Kills
- Operated in Action (Flown during a conflict)
- Famous Pilot
- Operated for an Iconic Person
- Operated for a Famous Person
- Operated for a Person of Note
- Made a Unique Kill (like shooting down a jet when a piston aircraft, or dropped the first whatever?)
- Only One In Existence in the World (Must be Original)
- Only One Flying in the World
- Restored to be Authentic
- Grand Champion Gold Wrench Award at EAA AirVenture (or Int’l Equiv.)
- Grand Champion Award at Sun ‘n Fun (or Int’l Equiv.)
- Still Operational in a Squadron/Air Force (Not for demonstration purposes)
My “Provenance” Rating Table also applies to Civilian (non-Warbird), and Spacecraft, with different categories in each group.
All-through the last 280 years of aviation history, there have been more than 1,150 aircraft manufacturers who produced aircraft of some form, or another. Between all Price-Guides-all added together - less than 150 mfrs. are covered by them, therefore, when I use my term: “Off-Book” aircraft, I am referring to the 1,000+ makes and models of aircraft that are not covered.
Fortunately for me, I have found that there is an excellent living to be made from appraising ‘Off-Book” Aircraft. All it takes is a willingness to work in-part as a researcher, historian and aviation geek – all in addition to my ‘day-job’ as an accredited aircraft appraiser.
As one of my clients put it to me recently: ”You are discovering the provenance of my aircraft which is great!”…Meaning, through my research the history of the subject aircraft – its history unfolds into both a written and pictorial narrative included in my appraisal report, which often deserves a higher appraised value.
Nothing is ‘made-up’ or invented - Just discovered!
This article is written by Jeremy Cox, President of JetValues-Jeremy LLC, and published by NAFA on February 25, 2022.
