aircraft value

NAFA member, Jeremy Cox, Vice President of JetBrokers, Inc., spotlights the specific points of value in the used Learjet marketplace.

The legendary Learjet series continues to be popular among business jet owners and operators today – and that includes the used aircraft sales market with a total of 246 used transactions for Learjets occurring since January 2010 across all models.

All of the post-production Learjet models discussed within this article are currently projected by the Aircraft Bluebook to accumulate averages of between 306 and 408 flight hours annually. The highest annual projection belongs to the Learjet 35A and the lowest is assigned to the Learjet 31A.

THE AVERAGE TOTAL-TIMES FOR EACH MODEL AT THE TIME OF WRITING WERE AS FOLLOWS:

• Learjet 75 (2015 Model): 697 flight hours
• Learjet 60 (2000 Model): 5,164 flight hours
• Learjet 55 (1983 Model): 10,986 flight hours
• Learjet 45 (2002 Model): 3,760 flight hours
• Learjet 40 (2006 Model): 4,575 flight hours
• Learjet 35 (1980 Model): 10,953 flight hours
• Learjet 31 (1995 Model): 6,125 flight hours

Following, we’ll consider each model with its variants, and offer some insight into of their current market values.

LEARJET 70 & 75

Today, there are two Learjet models in production at Bombardier – the Learjet 75 (with a 2018 list price of $13.8m) and the Learjet 70 (with a list price of $11.3m). The Learjet 75 and 70 were introduced as improvements over the Learjet 45 and 40, respectively.

Among the enhancements these models offer are new TFE731-40BR engines, new winglets and a three-screen Garmin G5000 avionics panel packaged and marketed as the Bombardier Vision Flight Deck. While the MGTOW of both models is 21,500lbs, the Learjet 70 is 2.6 feet shorter than the Learjet 75.

In terms of residual value a 2015 Learjet 75 is indicated to be at about 52% of its new price, based upon a retail value today of $7.2m.

LEARJET 60/60SE/60XR

The Learjet 60 was introduced to the market as the successor to the Learjet 55 model (overleaf). It included a 3.5 foot stretched fuselage over its predecessor allowing for increased passenger and baggage space. Many have an optional Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) installed in the rear compartment.

Powered by two Pratt & Whitney Canada PW305A engines, the original Learjet 60 is equipped with Full Authority Digital Engine Control (FADEC) and has a standard Collins Proline 4 avionics package (with four-tube EFIS, digital tuning heads and Collins FMS-850 Flight Management System).

The Learjet 60SE followed the original Learjet 60, and is equipped with the same engines as the standard model, but has a 1,000lbs higher MGTOW (23,750lbs). It was introduced as the ‘Special Edition’, because it features an APU, the Collins TWR-850 Radar, TCAS II, new interior and entertainment system, and an expanded list of new-build options that could add up to $1m to the delivered price.

The Learjet 60XR, meanwhile, is the same as a 60SE model, except that the avionics suite had been upgraded to the Proline 21, four-tube EFIS system. The Learjet 60XR also features a redesigned, expanded galley cabinet and a much-improved entertainment system. Finally, the aft lavatory incorporates a cabin window for natural lighting.

The residual value of a 2000-model Learjet 60 is currently at about 12% of its 2000 list price. The current retail value is approximately $1.7m. The following ‘Appraised Value Add-Ons’ for the Learjet 60 model are based on my own numbers, not those of the value guides:

• Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) below s/n 275 +$150,000
• Flight Data Recorder +$50,000
• TCAS II +$90,000
• TWR-850 Radar +$10,000
• Gogo Biz ATG-5000 +$135,000

LEARJET 55/55B/55C

The Learjet 55 series included three models. The original Learjet 55 incorporated a pair of TFE731-3A-2B engines producing 3,700lbst each. Although the Learjet 55B that followed utilized the same engines, it also offered operators increased MGTOW, and an all-digital flight deck.

Finally, the Learjet 55C introduced Delta Fins on the lower-rear fuselage for increased pitch, and directional stability, and single-point refuel became standard for this model. Rockwell Collins’ Five-Tube EFIS-85L, APS-85 Autopilot and UNS-1A FMS were incorporated into the cockpit.

The residual value of a 1983 Learjet 55 is currently at about 11% of its 1983 list price ($6.9m) and the current retail value is ~$730k.

The following ‘Appraised Value Add-Ons’ for the Learjet 55 model are based on my numbers, not those of the value guides:

• ER Modification +$25,000
• LR Modification +$65,000
• Gogo Biz ATG-5000 +$135,000

LEARJET 45/45XR

The Bombardier Learjet 45 was a clean-sheet aircraft design when it entered the market. Most importantly for passengers, the interior cabin space was designed first, with the aircraft being built around that space, all by computer modeling. The only component shared with earlier Learjet models was the Nose Landing Gear. Everything else was new.

Up to s/n 52, the standard Learjet 45 model came equipped with TFE731-20R engines, each producing 3,500 lbst and featuring FADEC. After s/n 52, these engines were delivered in the -20AR configuration (offering more robust hot-section components, and improved reliability with new carbon seals). An APU is an option on the Learjet 45.

The Learjet 45XR differed from the standard model, by incorporating a further upgraded version of the same TFE731-20BR engines which allowed a 1,000 lbs increase to MGTOW (21,500 lbs). Again, an APU is standard.

The residual value of a 2002 Learjet 45 is currently at about 15% of its 2002 list price ($13.209m), and current retail value is approximately $2m.

The following ‘Appraised Value Add-Ons’ for the Learjet 45 model are based on my numbers, not those of the value guides:

• No APU -$150,000
• BR Engine Modification +$180,000
• Gogo Biz ATG-5000 +$135,000

LEARJET 40/40XR

The Learjet 40 is shorter by two feet than the Learjet 45XR model, but is powered by the same engines. Performance is stellar, but it carries less fuel and therefore offers a shorter range. The reduced cabin length also eliminates two seats.

Further, the Learjet 40 is not equipped with an APU. The Learjet 40XR offers approximately 650 lbs greater MGTOW (21,000 lbs) than the Learjet 40 and increased range with the greater fuel capacity.

The residual value of a 2006 Learjet 40 is currently at about 18% of its 2006 list price ($10.838m) with the current retail value being around $1.9m.

The following ‘Appraised Value Add-Ons’ for the Learjet 40 model are based on my numbers, not those of the value guides:

• BR Engine Modification +$180,000
• Dual UNS-1EW w/WAAS +$80,000
• Gogo Biz ATG-4000 +$120,00

This article was originally published in AvBuyer Magazine on March 5, 2018 and on JetBrokers, Inc. 

NAFA member, Anthony Kioussis, President of Asset Insight, shares the difference between diminution of value and cost to cure.

When an aircraft sustains any form of damage, its effect on the asset’s value must be considered. True “value diminution” occurs when an incident happens that requires maintenance or repair, such as a tug running into an aircraft or a hangar door denting the asset. Once repaired, a stigma associated with the event may lead to value diminution that follows the aircraft going forward.

Cost to cure

An area less understood by many, and often confused with value diminution, is “cost to cure.” Cost to cure results from an expense incurred after an incident that leads to maintenance or repair. The difference is that once the maintenance or repair takes place, the aircraft is as good as it once was – perhaps even better. It is important to remember that cost to cure does not necessarily equate to value and may not lead to a dollar-for-dollar value adjustment. Removing and replacing a wingtip mitigates the damage sustained and is a direct cost, but there is no increase to value, unless one can upgrade to a higher efficiency style wingtip. Should that be the case, the more efficient wingtip’s ability to improve fuel burn and speed may even mitigate “functional obsolescence” (the loss of value due to characteristics inherent within or to the aircraft) and increase value.

“The challenge is determining if true value diminution has occurred and accounting for it correctly when valuing the aircraft,” explains Barb Spoor, a senior ASA (American Society of Appraisers) accredited appraiser with Asset Insight, and former chair of the ASA’s Appraisal Review & Management Discipline Committee.

According to Spoor, numerous items must be considered. “We try to determine whether the damage was static or dynamic. In other words, was the aircraft standing still or was it in motion. Damage to the wing may be far less invasive from a tug creasing a wingtip than from the aircraft creasing that same wingtip while taxiing under its own power,” she adds.

Has structural damage occurred?

Another item to consider is whether structural damage has occurred. “The crease to the wingtip may be the tip of the iceberg,” according to Spoor, pointing out that there may be damage to the wing spar that required repair, an event that will likely impact the aircraft’s value, and perhaps its marketability, for the remainder of its life.

Was the pressure vessel damaged? A bird strike on the nose cone that results in the critter terminating in the cockpit (an actual incident) is likely to have a far greater, and lasting impact – no pun intended – on the aircraft’s value than a bird ingested by an engine. “The cost to cure for the engine repair may be high, although that is often covered by insurance,” says Spoor. “But there is unlikely to be any value diminution, or even a marketing stigma, to the aircraft associated with an engine event, especially if the engine is overhauled.”

Who performed the repair? Was it the aircraft’s manufacturer, an expert at an OEM-approved facility, or a local shop that is no longer in business? Did the OEM issue engineering drawings for a maintenance facility to conduct the repairs leading to an FAA Form 337 filing, or were the repairs conducted by the OEM, thereby negating a Form 337 filing? According to Spoor, “The more favorable perception of an OEM repair may assist in mitigating at least some of the value diminution.”

Exactly how were the repairs completed? Was the damaged part removed and replaced, or was the part repaired and reinstalled? An aircraft sporting an aileron that was punctured and replaced is likely to be valued differently than one whose aileron was repaired and reinstalled, as the latter asset will continue carrying a part that was damaged.

How long ago did the damage occur and when was the repair completed? “A 15-year-old aircraft that had a damaged wingtip replaced by the manufacturer during its 5th year of service is going to carry a nominal value diminution compared to an asset that received the same amount of damage during its 15th year of service while it was listed for sale,” states Spoor.

Read full article here.

This article was originally published in the October 2018 issue of Professional Pilot Magazine.

July 18, 2018 – According to Asset Insight’s quarterly Market Report (AI² Market Report), industry indicators are leaning toward a “neutral” to “sellers” market for younger, lower-time aircraft.
 
The 2Q 2018 AI² Market Report analyzes values for every production year of every modern make and model Business Class aircraft, while the Report’s maintenance analytics cover 93 fixed-wing models and 1,599 aircraft listed for sale. 
 
Other trends detailed in the 2Q 2018 Market Report include: 

• Large Jets and Turboprops increased Average Ask Price through mid-year.
• Ask vs. final Transaction Value gap narrowed (improved) across all categories.
• Demand increased across all categories, except Turboprops.
• The “For Sale” fleet earned a “Very Good” Asset Quality Rating; Large and Medium jet Quality Rating improved while Small Jets and Turboprops declined.

“We’re seeing demand and Ask Price increases for younger, low-time aircraft, especially within the Large and Medium jet sectors,” said Tony Kioussis, president of Asset Insight, LLC. “As the Asset Insight system predicted, Ask Price decreases have slowed considerably for many models, and our forecast is that price decreases will continue to slow through 3Q.  However, owners of older aircraft, especially those not already ADS-B compliant, will continue to struggle and meet increasingly difficult selling conditions from higher quality assets as time goes on.”
 
Note to editors, managers and owners: Please see the bottom right corner of each category page for a concise summary of the results and conditions in that specific market segment.
 
Exclusively available from Asset Insight, the AI² Market Report includes eTrend^TM, a 90-day forecast for aircraft value by make and model. This tool is especially helpful to sellers who are evaluating offers on their aircraft while concurrently considering if their prospects are likely to improve. 
 
Statistically, Asset Insight's eTrend^TM  forecasts are based on some of the most robust data analytics in the industry and have been thoroughly back-tested to confirm a significant degree of accuracy.
 
To download the complete Market Report covering Q2 2018, visit www.assetinsight.com or click here.