NAFA member jetAVIVA shares their 2025 Market Forecast.
One year ago, many wondered how the markets would fare heading into a volatile election season. But a data point shared around mid-2024 put our minds at ease: historically, election years’ sales volumes align closely with those of the preceding and succeeding years. While December data is still being finalized, preliminary reports suggest that pre-owned transactions in 2024 will likely show a year-over-year change within a single-digit percentage range, effectively indicating a stable market compared to 2023. Optimism and activity have increased post-election, and if market trends continue, this signals another promising year for the business aviation market.
There are a few variables on the board worth keeping an eye on. There’s buzzing chatter about a potential return of 100% Bonus Depreciation. While this would undoubtedly be a boon to the industry, the timing and scope of its impact remain uncertain. Additionally, December’s strong jobs report raised some concerns about inflation, while recent CPI and PPI data pointed to easing price pressures but left the future of interest rates uncertain. While rate adjustments remain on the table, they are unlikely to significantly influence deal behavior this year.
Looking more closely at the pre-owned business jet market, it remains robust. Inventory levels rose consistently throughout 2024 but generally stayed below 10% of the fleet for sale. High-pedigree aircraft continue to trade quickly, and pricing—while steadily normalizing to standard depreciation cycles—remains strong for desirable models.
December saw nearly double the number of closings compared to preceding months, with some deals still finalizing as we speak. Was this a typical year-end rush, or did pent-up demand unlock post-election? The first quarter of 2025 will likely provide the answer. At jetAVIVA, we’re off to a roaring start. Our forecast for the first quarter is on pace to be the best in my tenure with the firm, thanks largely to business initiated after November 5th.
This article was originally published by jetAVIVA on January 20, 2025.